Do the math or get the goat!

I originally got this story from the wonderful WWW trilogy by Robert J. Sawyer, second book, which is WWW:Watch.  The idea is that you are on “Let’s Make A Deal” and you can pick from one of three doors.  Behind one door is a brand new car.  Behind each of the other two doors is a goat.  You make your choice (door No. 1, 2 or 3) and Monty Hall opens one of the other two doors to reveal – a goat.  Then he says you can change your mind or you can stay with your original choice.  What do you do?

Cancerninja posted this on her tumblr and I see that the scenario was discussed in another book, one I have not read, called The Curious Case of the Dog In The Night, by Mark Haddon.

The point is that every fiber of my being says it doesn’t matter if you change your mind about the remaining two doors.  But Marilyn vos Savant proved that your chances of getting the car go WAY up if you simply change your mind when confronted with the 50/50 proposition.

In WWW:Watch, Sawyer reasoned that the natural selection had not favored the trait of accurately evaluating probability because of the following scenario:  If proto man see a rustling in the bush and there is a 1 in 10 chance the rustling is a hungry tiger, and proto-man plays the odds, 1 in 10 times he will get eaten.  But if proto-man always thinks its a tiger, he will be wrong 9 out of ten times, but he will still be alive.

Anyway, here is vos Saavant’s proof, as reprinted in the Cancerninja post:

I have no idea what any of that means, but it looks awfully cool.  Would you have thought that changing your mind would have improved your odds of getting the car?

And remember, all of this starts with the basic assumption that you don’t want a goat.

Robert J. Sawyer’s new novel of the living internet “Watch” is out tomorrow

Robert J. Sawyer wrote one of the best books of 2009 with www.wake, which envisions the way in which the internet (you know, THE internet) could become self-aware.  It’s great story-telling and air-tight tech.  The second book in the trilogy comes out tomorrow.  Check out a trailer for the book here.

Continuing to wrap up 2009 – the Reads!

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That’s right, folks! I read seven books this year!  Considering how slowly I read, that is actually a bit of an accomplishment for me.  Oh sure, I also read a lot of Jim Bouton’s iconic Ball Four (which I will finish some day) and a zillion articles about the Phillies.  There were also a few short stories, cartoons, comic books, tweets, status updates, briefs, cases, opinions, blog entries, articles and instruction manuals along the way.

But, ever since high school, I’ve really loved the novel – with it’s long format and character development, it is a feast for the mind, a smorgasbord for the imagination.  The problem for me with novels is that I usually read a book so slowly, I want to be as certain as possible that it will be worth my while.  That’s where John Scalzi’s Big Idea project has proven to be quite helpful.  Scalzi is a real professional with the written word.  He was writing for money well before ‘making it’ as a sci-fi novelist.  After gaining huge success, he has devoted a great deal of attention to directing his fans to more good ‘genre’ fiction.  All seven of these titles are sci-fi/ fantasy and four come from Scalzi’s Big Idea.

The Dark River, by John Twelve Hawks; this is the second book in the Fourth Realm Trilogy, and embodies a lot of the same intense paranoia that worked so well in book one – The Traveler.  The world looks these characters inhabit looks like ours, but under the surface there is a desperate battle between evil corporate forces that would rid the world of Travelers, a spiritual master that can go between parallel realities and bring enlightenment.  Although this second installment didn’t have the punch of the original, these books both offer the most horrifying concept of panopticon that I have yet come across.  Imagine a world where literally everything you do is monitored and digested by corporate interests who know everything you’ve said, every place you’ve been and everything you’ve done.  There is no where to hide and there is no escape!

WWW:Wake by Robert J. Sawyer; this title comes right off The Big Idea list and does nothing more than hypothesize a way in which the internet (you know, the internet) wakes up and begins to form a consciousness.  Talk about HEAVY!!  This is also the story of a young girl who is blind and is learning through technology, to see.  She becomes the webs first friend.  If all of this sounds like it’s a bit far fetched, then you don’t know Robert J. Sawyer.  All of his science checks out and holds up – no senseless psychobabble allowed.  Despite the amazing tech, Sawyer manages to bring the emotional side into play as young Caitlin and her big friend try to find their way in a frightening world.  This was a GREAT read.

Zoe’s Tale, by John Scalzi; this book tells the same story of Scalzi’s previous effort “The Last Colony” but from the point of view of another character.  Young Zoe is not the main player in the action of Lost Colony, but she does play a pivotal role that happens outside the action of the story.  Scalzi pulls a neat trick by now revealing what that action consisted of.  His professionalism and skill allows him to deftly shift gears and give the story a sincere freshness with this young girl’s voice.  It must help that Scalzi has a daughter routinely plays a role in his various blog entries.  Like all of his other books, Zoe’s Tale is tremendous fun, but with an added sense of genius that elevates the storytelling from pure escapism to enriching pulp.  I just love carrying around those little mass-market paperbacks.

Norse Code, by Greg van Eekhout; this is a great first novel that retells the awesome battle of the gods Ragnarok.  Neil Gaiman’s American Gods did such a beautiful job with the character study of Shadow, but didn’t succeed as well in the cataclysmic part of the myth.  No such problem for van Eekhout’s debut novel.  We get big battles that rattle California almost to ruin.  The characters left me wanting a bit more, but I realize that in a 290 page novel about the battle that brings about the end of the world, you can only do so much.  Suffice to say that the dialog and action are just what I wanted and I sped right through this selection from the Scalzi Big Idea list.

Mark of the Demon, by Diana Rowland; this is another debut and it was great.  The book is part X-Files, part CSI.  There are no little green men, but there is a whole lot of magic.  The setting is Louisiana and the main character is a young detective who also just happens to have the magical skills to summon demons from other realms.  It may be a crazy premise, but it is set up with such careful development and deliberate pacing that it all works beautifully.  There are certain aspects that seem to be a bit contrived detective novel stuff, but then I come back to the insane premise and I can’t get enough.  This is another selection from the Scalzi list and it just kept getting better and better.  I’m waiting to see if Ms. Rowland can get the series picked up.  Writing is no easy game!

Sandman Slim, by Richard Kadrey; this book was an absolute riot.  As slow as I read, I plowed through this bloodbath in just a few days.  Stark, a young magician, got sent to Hell by some unscrupulous associates and now, after eleven years of murder, mayhem and torture, he’s back for revenge.  Kadrey is a total rock star with the one liners and his taste for violence is varied and expansive.  It was great to read this book right after the Diana Rowland because a lot of the magic is similarly described.  But Kadrey goes the extra mile by referencing spaghetti westerns, samurai stories, Dirty Harry, Tom Waits, and everything in between.  Somehow, this books is really offensive and really likable at the same time.

Green, by Jay Lake; I save the best for last, even though it’s already been a few months since I finished Green.  This is one of the best things I’ve ever read, and the ending made the hair on the back of my neck stand up and my eyes fill with tears.  A young girl from a fictional land is sold by her father to become the property of an ageless tyrant in a far away civilization.  From that horror, she goes on a journey that will form her into a young woman, a religious zealot, a merciless killer and a potential savior of gods and men.  This is a book of extraordinary power and emotion and it deserves it’s own post, which I will try to attend to before the year is out.

    It’s a READING frenzy!!

    After having (finally) finished Jay Lake‘s stunning new book, ‘Green‘, I’m all charged up to do some serious reading.  Em is out of town for the next two nights, so it will just be me and the four-letters.  Right away, there a ton of decent-looking selections close at hand.

    Firstly, I have to give a special shout to John Scalzi’s ‘Big Idea‘ project. On his ancient blog ‘Whatever‘ he’s been highlighting a veritable cornocopia of tasty sci-fi, fantasy and more. I would never have heard of ‘Green’ or ‘W.W.W Wake‘ if it hadn’t been for Scalzi. And, as of today he’s now featuring ‘The Big Idea’ on his Twitter feed, so check it out.

    The next novel I’m reading comes right off that list and tells the story of a Louisiana detective who uses demons to help her solve crimes. I’m not completely sold on the premise of the appropriately titled ‘Mark of the Demon‘, but it’s a good choice for Halloween and the reviews are very positive so far.  Plus, Scalzi hasn’t really steered me wrong yet.

    In a piece of conceptual continuity, a great mystery writer whom I enjoy is taking up a great all-time graphic novel character. Ian Rankin of Rebus fame has written a nice fat graphic novel in the John Constantine series for Vertigo called ‘Dark Entries‘. As if that weren’t enough to get me on board (it is), the story puts Constantine, paranormal investigator, in the midst of a reality TV show – Brilliant!

    In addition to those items, I’ve picked up ‘Sandman Slim’ by Richard Kadrey for after ‘Mark of the Demon’.  I think this is an urban fantasy about revenge from beyond the grave.  Again, it seems to fit in nicely with the theme I’ve got going.

    In the realm of shorter works, the incredible Aliette de Boddard has just published a short story over at Orson Scott Card’s Intergalactic Medicine Show.  This site takes the traditional sci-fi fiction journal and puts it online.  I paid about $2.50 for the September issue and I get de Boddard’s On Horizon’s Shores, which is the featured work, and a number of other tasty looking goodies.  It’s actually a novelette (as opposed to short story) and after just reading the first few paragraphs, I know it’s going to be great.

    The other shorter work I’m excited to look at is a crazy-looking new wave script from 1980 that was linked on io9 today.  The Tourist would probably have made a great movie if it hadn’t been for infighting and development hell.  In present day (well, 1980, anyway) Manhattan, there are aliens living among us, in disguise.  In real life they look like amazingly icky H.R. Giger creatures, because he was brought in (following the groundbreaking success of Alien) to do the concept art.  There’s a link that lets you download the script and I’m hoping for something partway between Cronenberg and The Hunger.

    I’m waiting for music

    cocaw1mdhc

    I have literally just started this book (on Scalzi‘s recommedation) and, so far, its a fascinating techno thriller, centered around a 15 year-old girl who has never been able to see.  The acknowledgments show that the author spent a lot of time trying to get it right – working with physicians, scinetists, blind people, to be able to tell much of the story through this character.  There is so much about how she hears the world, and it really resonates with me.  So far, and it’s very early in the story, there is really no music to speak of.